Executive Summary

Q1 2025 remained a pre-revenue build quarter with materially lower operating expenses and cash burn in-line with guidance: revenue $0.46M, GAAP opex $88.9M, net loss $(84.5)M, Adjusted EBITDA $(72.2)M, free cash flow $(122.0)M (within prior guide) . Liquidity stood at $567M in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities .
Versus S&P Global consensus, SPCE delivered a clean beat on revenue and EPS for Q1 2025: revenue $0.46M vs $0.29M estimate; EPS $(2.38) vs $(2.55) estimate. EBITDA was modestly below consensus. Management guided Q2 revenue to ~ $0.4M and free cash flow to $(105)M–$(115)M, with spend trending lower through 2025 as peak investment is behind the company . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Execution update: management reaffirmed first research space mission in summer 2026 and private astronaut flights in fall 2026; “Future Astronaut” sales expected to reopen in Q1 2026, with pricing likely above the prior $600k level .
Near-term stock catalysts: progress updates on Delta ships (rocket systems/avionics/flight controls/mechanical/structures), quarterly cash burn trajectory toward < $100M in Q4 2025, and reopening sales in Q1 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Cost discipline: GAAP opex fell 21% YoY to $88.9M; Adjusted EBITDA improved to $(72.2)M (vs $(86.8)M YoY); free cash flow of $(122.0)M was within guidance .
- Program execution milestones: progress across rocket systems (first flight-ready oxidizer tank accepted), modern avionics and simulator-driven flight control testing; mechanical systems with 95% landing gear parts complete; contingency planning mitigated a delayed wing part without critical path impact .
- Liquidity runway and flexibility: $567M cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities; $31M raised via ATM, which remains in place as a flexible financing tool .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line still de minimis due to paused flights: revenue declined to $0.46M from $1.99M YoY (driven by focus on Delta production) .
- Cash burn and capex remain heavy: Q1 capex rose to $46.0M (vs $13.1M YoY); free cash flow was $(122.0)M (vs $(126.3)M YoY) .
- EBITDA below S&P consensus: Q1 EBITDA actual was slightly weaker than consensus per S&P Global, despite the YoY improvement in company Adjusted EBITDA . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Financial Results

Reported results (USD Millions unless noted)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue	$1.985	$0.429	$0.461
GAAP Total Operating Expenses	$113.143	$82.382	$88.909
Non-GAAP Total Operating Expenses	$101.200	$72.499	$79.917
Net Loss	$(102.012)	$(76.413)	$(84.487)
Diluted EPS	$(5.10)	$(2.53)	$(2.38)
Adjusted EBITDA	$(86.762)	$(63.438)	$(72.207)
Net Cash Used in Operations	$(113.229)	$(81.035)	$(75.918)
Capital Expenditures (cash paid)	$13.072	$35.709	$46.047
Free Cash Flow	$(126.301)	$(116.744)	$(121.965)

KPIs and balance sheet trends

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities	$744	$657	$567
PP&E, net	$181.154	$209.114	$249.219
Weighted Avg Shares (Basic & Diluted, M)	—	30.254	35.440

S&P Global consensus vs actual (quarterly)*

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean (Estimate*)	$0.375M*	$0.286M*
Revenue (Actual*)	$0.429M*	$0.461M*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean (Estimate*)	$(2.998)*	$(2.553)*
Primary EPS (Actual*)	$(2.53)*	$(2.38)*
EBITDA Consensus Mean (Estimate*)	$(73.47)M*	$(83.58)M*
EBITDA (Actual*)	$(77.78)M*	$(84.23)M*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Context:

Q1 2025 revenue and EPS were above S&P consensus; EBITDA was modestly below consensus. Company-reported Adjusted EBITDA was $(72.2)M .

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (revenue in the quarter primarily from future astronaut access and event fees) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Free Cash Flow	Q2 2025	—	$(105)M to $(115)M	Initiated
Revenue	Q2 2025	—	≈ $0.4M (astronaut access fees)	Initiated
Free Cash Flow	Q1 2025	$(115)M to $(125)M (given 2/26/25)	Actual: $(122.0)M	In-line vs prior guide
Commercial Timeline	2026	On track for 2026	First research mission Summer 2026; private astronaut flights Fall 2026	Maintained/Refined
Future Astronaut Sales	Q1 2026	—	Sales reopen in waves; price likely above prior $600k	New detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Delta spaceship production progress	Q3: Build phase underway; initial flight-control testing completed . Q4: Assembly of first spaceship to begin March 2025 .	Detailed progress across rocket systems, avionics, simulator-based flight controls, mechanical systems/landing gear (95% parts complete); mitigated delayed wing part without critical path impact .	Continued execution; de-risking via simulator/testing; schedule buffers maintained.
Cost discipline & capex	Q3: Opex reductions; FCF guide $(115)M–$(125)M for Q4 . Q4: Opex down; capex $36M; FCF $(117)M .	GAAP opex $88.9M; capex $46.0M; FCF $(122.0)M (within guide); spend set to trend lower through 2025; target < $100M burn by Q4 2025 .	Peak spending passed; burn improving through 2025.
Sales reopening & pricing	—	Sales to reopen Q1 2026 in waves; pricing expected above $600k; focus on white-glove onboarding and yield management .	New commercial detail; pricing power message.
Second spaceport (Italy)	Work with Italy’s civil aviation authority; feasibility study advancing .	Midway through feasibility; gating items include airspace, wind/weather patterns; government support; facilities/hangars investment considerations .	Ongoing evaluation; constructive signals.
Carrier aircraft “HAL Heavy” opportunities	Q3 mentioned mothership program to accelerate growth .	Exploring government R&D missions (ISR, C2 nodes, Golden Dome); engaging DoD, national labs; consider CRADAs .	Early business development underway.
Supply chain/tariffs	—	Tariff exposure de minimis; long-lead materials secured; minor impacts (e.g., crate wood costs) .	Risk managed; minimal P&L effect.

Management Commentary

CEO: “We continue to expect our first research space flight will take place in summer of 2026 with private astronaut flights following in fall of 2026.”
CEO on progress and de-risking: “By leaning more heavily into off-the-shelf avionics hardware, in combination with our own proprietary software, we are creating systems that require less maintenance and support faster turnaround times… test benches in our lab… designed to significantly derisk and expedite our flight test program.”
CEO on mitigating delays: “Wing assembly is now starting later than originally planned, [but] the nimble adjustments from the team allow us to adapt to the change without impacting the critical path.”
CFO: “We ended the first quarter with $567 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities… Forecasted free cash flow for the second quarter of 2025 is… negative $105 million to $115 million… the required peak investment level is now behind us.”

Q&A Highlights

TAM and commercial ramp: TAM of ~300k+ remains a reasonable framework; early years expected to rely on referrals and some repeats; three private astronauts from the last Unity flight have already signed up to fly again .
Cash burn trajectory: Targeting quarterly cash spend below $100M by Q4 2025; spend expected to decline through 2025, turning to positive cash flow in 2026 as ships enter service .
Backlog & cadence: Aim for 1–2 years of backlog; initial capacity target ~125 flights/year per ship with 6 seats; wave-based sales to manage pricing and experience .
Italy spaceport feasibility: Key gating factors are airspace and operational paths factoring wind/weather; existing runway, with investments needed for facilities/hangars; supportive government posture .
Tariffs/supply chain: Minimal impact due to U.S. sourcing and advance ordering; some minor cost increases in packing materials (wood) .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Revenue $0.461M vs $0.286M consensus (beat); EPS $(2.38) vs $(2.55) consensus (beat); EBITDA $(84.2)M vs $(83.6)M consensus (slight miss). Q4 2024: Revenue $0.429M vs $0.375M (beat), EPS $(2.53) vs $(3.00) (beat). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Revenue/EPS beats amid de minimis revenue suggest cost control and lower share count are helping EPS; EBITDA tracking slightly below consensus while company-reported Adjusted EBITDA improved YoY. Expect modest estimate fine-tuning on EBITDA path and quarterly burn trajectory into 2H25 as capex moderates .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution steady; 2026 start reaffirmed with first research mission summer 2026 and private astronauts in fall 2026—critical for the medium-term revenue inflection .
Cost downtrend intact: GAAP opex down 21% YoY, Adjusted EBITDA improved YoY, and Q2 2025 FCF guided to $(105)M–$(115)M; spend expected to trend lower through 2025 with sub-$100M in Q4 .
Liquidity provides runway: $567M in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities plus ATM flexibility helps bridge to 2026; monitor quarterly drawdown vs PP&E growth .
Commercial levers ahead: Reopening sales in Q1 2026 (waves, likely higher pricing than $600k) and a structured onboarding experience position SPCE for yield management and brand building .
Capacity/backlog planning: Targeting ~125 flights/year per ship at 6 seats and 1–2 years of backlog; pricing strategy to stair-step with demand .
Optionality: Carrier aircraft “HAL Heavy” government/research opportunities under exploration could create incremental revenue streams over time .
Near-term watch items: Q2 free cash flow delivery vs guidance, continued Delta assembly milestones (rocket/avionics/mechanical structures), Italy spaceport feasibility outcomes, and any changes to 2026 timeline .

Footnote: Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

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